kenny

>>> Update for March 2026

I'm back at it again with the lazy monthly reading recap:

March 1

Perspectives | On Paris (Humanities Library): Collected quotes and art related to Paris. I only visited once, and too briefly, but I think Paris will always be more beautiful to me in writing and painting.
AI With a Western Soul (with Tyler Cowen) (The Long Game podcast): Tyler Cowen on AI, supply chains, US-China politics. Current AI personality as basically a center-left western intellectual.
A scoundrel's last refuge (Scott Sumner): Scott argues that state patriotism (and patriotism in sports) is healthier than national/political patriotism. I think patriotism is a fraught term.
"All Lawful Use": Much More Than You Wanted To Know (ACX): An excellent overview of the legality of different levels of mass surveillance. I somehow didn't know that the purchase and analysis of 3rd party data is completely legal. The post was written by anonymous ACX readers during the recent dust-up between Anthropic and the Department of War.
A guide to the AI Tribes (Michel Justen): A brief history of AI-related groups and their relative positions on capabilities, risks, etc. I would highly recommend this to those new to "the discourse" and wish I would've seen this piece a year or two ago rather than stumbling into LessWrong after hearing Leopold Aschenbrenner on Dwarkesh's podcast. It would be nice to have more disambiguation posts like this for different scenes (and I'm a sucker for those political compass-style charts).

The night cometh (Henry Oliver): Meditations on death and time. Samuel Johnson's watch was engraved with the phrase, "the night cometh, when no man can work." It's eerie to read this on a Monday morning as the clock on my machine at the gym ticks along.

Noah Smith on Blogging, AI Economics, and Elite Overproduction (Justified Posteriors podcast)

On Being a Dad (Derek Thompson): Derek Thompson on life as an amusement park and how the roles of father, brother, and son are all distinct but can coexist throughout your life, reawakened by circumstances.

Henry Oliver on Measure for Measure, Late Bloomers, and the Smartest Writers in English (Conversations with Tyler podcast): The first half focuses exclusively on Shakespeare's Measure for Measure.

Freak Out! (Scott Sumner): Maybe panic is justified when it helps prevent the outcome you were panicking about.

Chinese countryside's quieter strains (Yuxuan Jia/樱桃大房子): A translated Chinese blog post on the stagnation in rural areas of Hunan province. Found via Daily Links.
Gas prices are set to go vertical (Nate Silver): Self-explanatory (see title).

America and Public Disorder (Chris Arnade): On the seemingly high capacity for public disorder in the US. While nowhere near as extreme as in larger cities, my own town has seen an uptick in public disorder in the past few years, probably influenced by its permissive policies compared with neighboring cities. I agree with Chris that it only seems to be about 15% of the homeless population causing issues. It may have been a seasonal aberration, but I saw fewer homeless people during a weeklong trip to Rome than I typically do during a week in my midwestern hometown.
The Viking Era and the Humanities (Sam Kahn): Another piece on the death of the humanities and dominance of STEM. Even as a former history major I mostly agree with the author. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a humanities revival/backlash in my lifetime. If we reach AGI, will the sciences become useless because of their legibility?
REVIEW: How to Solve It, by George Pólya (Mr. and Mrs. Psmith's Bookshelf): Another excellent review on this Substack. I should probably actually read my copy of this one now.

A.O.C. is not the problem (Matt Yglesias): On how centrist Democrats might need to position themselves for 2028.
Iran War continues, Strait of Hormuz remains closed, sharp drop in Chinese aircraft flying near Taiwan, Alibaba AI agent mystery || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #10/2026 (Sentinel Global Risks Watch): A nice roundup of recent events. I appreciate the forecasts as a way to quantify things, even if they aren't perfect. Currently only a 21% chance the US puts more than 1000 troops in Iran by May.

Last Rights (David Speiser on ACX): On the Congressional Apportionment Amendment as a solution to (some) of Congress's issues. I'd love for congressional reform of any kind to occur, but I just don't see the incentive for anyone in power to change the system.
Are we in the foothills of World War 3? (Noah Smith): How Syria, Ukraine, and Iran parallel the lead-up to WWII.
Some relationships deepen when you tell the truth and some end (Henrik Karlsson)

I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now (Dwarkesh Patel): Commentary on the Anthropic vs. DOW situation, AI alignment. I go back and forth on whether we'll reach AGI or superhuman intelligence in my lifetime, but it's easy to see areas like mass surveillance and autonomous warfare where even current models are powerful.
On high context and low context environments (Daniel Frank): Self-explanatory title.

Support your Local Collaborator (ACX)
War in Iran is Redrawing the Map for Natural Gas (Odd Lots Podcast): Bob Brackett on the natural gas market.

Save us, Digital Cronkite! (Noah Smith): An argument that AI may shepherd us toward greater consensus after an anarchic period of fragmentation due to social media. I'm not so sure. Most facts are already available with a simple search, so I don't know that LLM integration into social media will produce moderation; you can't force people to challenge their own beliefs and we already see accusations of AI being "woke".
Being John Rawls (ACX): John Rawls encounters karma.

There isn't always a "long arc" of morality (Noah Smith): Noah Smith on the unpopularity of the Democratic Party, even with Trump's blunders. He argues that progressives don't understand how out of touch and unpopular they are with most Americans. He also makes the case for Democrats to move to the center on issues where they're particularly unpopular, like immigration and trans rights.
Why hasn't oil gotten even more expensive? (Matt Yglesias): On the factors holding down the price of oil (and domestic gasoline).

Harvey Mansfield on Machiavelli, Straussianism, and the Character of Liberal Democracy (Conversations with Tyler podcast): Disappointing for a CWT episode. I'll give Mansfield some grace for being in his 90s, but he sidestepped questions and I don't come away with any real insight into his work (or Machiavelli's or anyone else's). Might need to investigate Straussianism.

The economic consequences of the Iran war (Noah Smith): The Iran War will hurt the US economy, but not to the point of a recession. Instead, European and especially Asian countries will deal with the harshest impacts from the war, further souring their perception of the United States.

Paul Gillingham on Why Mexico Stays Together (Conversations with Tyler podcast): On the strength of federalism, Mexico's relatively stability in the mid-20th century, and tidbits about assorted Mexican cities and states.