kenny

Here's my monthly media recap. Notes are recorded in my phone and then made into simple HTML with Claude. No frills, low quality commentary, but I like to document what I read/listen to. Here it is:

• 5/1/2026
  • AI Value Capture - The Shift To Model Labs (SemiAnalysis): Cheaper tokens and the explosive popularity of agents is finally making AI labs profitable. Despite this, Nvidia and TSMC still seem to be undercharging.
• 5/2/2026
  • When's the Best Time to Buy a Home? (Aziz Sunderji of Home Economics): Nationwide, new listings peak in the earlier summer, but the best deal for buyers tend to be in October and November.
• 5/3/2026
  • Why I Cry at Movies but Not at My Own Life (Desmolysium): Even if your biological markers are perfect, anhedonia can still exist for attentional reasons. Meditation and doing things that are deeply interesting can increase emotional intensity. Anecdotally, the recommendation for morning exercise is extremely valid for me; when I skip my exercise, the day has an entirely different, flatter texture.
  • Why Costco pays $30/hr and Target doesn't (Kuiper's Blog): A quick look at how Costco differs from Target and Walmart: fewer SKUs, forklifts instead of manual stocking, faster inventory turnover, less shoplifting, and membership fees.
  • The Most Important Charts in the World (Zvi): An uncharacteristically lighthearted post from Zvi. I especially appreciate the Japanese Phillip's curve.
  • Data Center Land Use Issues are Fake (Andy Masley): Another excellent myth busting article from Andy. As an Iowan, it's especially nice to see him examine ethanol handouts and explain how "family farm" is often a misleading term.
• 5/4/2026
  • How an Oil Refinery Works (Brian Potter of Construction Physics): A high-level overview of the refining process.
  • How Taiwan Became the World's Most Perilous Geopolitical Chokepoint (Odd Lots podcast): Eyck Freyman on Taiwan. I found the section on Taiwanese domestic politics particularly interesting: the KMT is more dovish on China since they share the idea of "one China." His discussion of "avalanche decoupling" from China is also good, but it's difficult for me to imagine any process beginning without a war or similar pressure.
• 5/5/2026
  • Seniors aren't living on "fixed incomes" (Matt Yglesias): Since 1975, social security has been adjusted for inflation. The elderly are also likelier to own stocks (rather than just bonds) than in the past. If anything, inflation seems to be a threat to those still working since their wages are usually not adjusted for inflation, forcing them to negotiate a raise, find a new job, or just deal with a decrease in purchasing power.
• 5/6/2026
  • Could development economics be more useful? (Noah Smith): Noah Smith's response to Fernandez-Villaverde's critique of development economics for its supposed interest in RCTs instead of grand theories. Noah points out that the big theories are rarely testable in a rigorous way because large-scale economic success stories are both rare and historically contingent. Worth checking out Noah's list of 10 different paradigms of development, each with a recent paper.
• 5/7/2026
  • Growling in a corner: Samuel Johnson's lost years (Henry Oliver): A short biography of Johnson with a final section on his years of depression after finishing the Dictionary.
• 5/8/2026
  • How Go Players Disempower Themselves to AI (Ashe Vazquez Nuñez on LessWrong): A somewhat disheartening article on the growth of AI cheating in the Go community. On some people just not being good enough at math (which sadly resonated with me): "People had shown up with bags of half-baked heuristics and hand-copied exercises and proofs. That exam had put them face to face with the fact that their memory aids were never going to help them 'get it'."
  • Barack Obama was a successful President (Noah Smith): Noah argues that despite criticism from the right and progressive left, Obama was a successful president, particularly in domestic affairs. Noah cites Obama's failure to effectively counter Russia and China as his greatest weaknesses.
  • Why Leonardo was a saboteur, Gutenberg went broke, and Florence was weird (Dwarkesh Podcast with Ada Palmer): An excellent interview with Renaissance historian Ada Palmer.
  • The world reveals itself to those who travel by foot (Henrik Karlsson): Henrik Karlsson on some of his formative social experiences, including a cycling trip to Finland.
• 5/10/2026
  • My Totally Accurate Model of What Happened to Haiti (TAMWHA) (Carl-Henri Prophète): A quick overview of Haiti's issues.
• 5/11/2026
  • Hantavirus won't be the next COVID (Peter Wildeford): On what makes Hantavirus different from COVID.
  • Tyrants are losing wars (Noah Smith): Despite recent curiosity around the success of strongmen, they seem to be losing on the battlefield (Syria, Hezbollah/Hamas, Russia in Ukraine. The invader/defender dichotomy and cooperation between democracies have both been important in these victories, and they're both lacking in Iran, Noah argues.
• 5/12/2026
  • Photographs of Old China (M.E. Rothwell): Photographs of Qing-era China by Scottish photographer John Thomson.
  • Money Stuff: KKR Buys Back Some Private Credit (Matt Levine): Matt examines the controversial resolution of Kalshi markets on Virginia's redistricting proposal, which was passed by voters but struck down by the Virginia Supreme Court.
  • Morale (J Bostock): Bostock defines morale as "having the nice things in your life correlated with effort." He also argues that while economic growth is a hack for societal morale, nominal inflation has the opposite effect, draining morale because it seems like a random loss.
• 5/13/2026
  • Money Stuff: EBay Won't Play With GameStop (Matt Levine): There may soon be futures markets for compute. Also, murkiness regarding forward contracts for OpenAI/Anthropic shares before their IPOs.
• 5/14/2026
  • Bob Spitz on the Rolling Stones, Bruce Springsteen, and the Art of Biography (Conversations with Tyler podcast): A solid interview by Tyler—it's nice to hear him interview on more traditional (not AI) subjects sometimes.
• 5/15/2026
  • Yes, Europeans are poorer than Americans (Noah Smith): Yes, the US is richer than Europe. Still, it's difficult to compare given the differences between, say, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe.
  • Until you get punched in the face (Cate Hall): On the danger of spamming what seems like a winning strategy, even after circumstances change.
  • The Great Forgetting (Scott Sumner): Sumner argues against import substitution. Interesting tidbit: "the PRC's residents remain the poorest ethnic Chinese on the planet."
• 5/16/2026
  • A Library of Distractions (Chris Arnade): Chris Arnade on his recent reading, including Aristotle's Politics and three novels on historical Japan.
• 5/17/2026
  • price is not all you need (Daniel Frank): Gripes above resellers, tipping, and dynamic pricing.
  • The mistake of conflating intelligence and power (Dwarkesh Patel): Dwarkesh argues for a distinction between power (which he roughly defines as the ability to coordinate) and intelligence (manipulation of abstract concepts).
• 5/18/2026
  • How banned AI chips end up in China (Peter Wildeford): While export controls on chips have been effective, smuggling to China is often difficult to prevent due to resellers located outside the US.
• 5/19/2026
  • Nick and Tristan's Interview with Tyler Cowen: A surprisingly interesting and wide-ranging interview with Tyler.
• 5/20/2026
  • Prediction Markets are the New Public Markets (Matt Levine): Anthropic stock transfer restrictions, Musk vs. OpenAI.
  • Prestige on the Cheap (ChinaTalk podcast): Coverage of Trump's recent visit to China. Really nothing major seemed to materialize; deals are likelier to occur closer to the midterms, when they're more valuable to Trump.
  • A history of the data center panic - part 1 (Andy Masley): On the earliest papers on AI and the environment and increasing distrust of big tech from both the left and right.
  • Love is to be invested in someone's continual expansion (Henrik Karlsson): "This is one of the joys and challenges of love: the more skillfully you love someone, the more held, encouraged, and accepted they feel, the more they change. If you love someone well, you have to run to keep up, growing your heart to hold what they are growing into. And this can be challenging. The direction of their change and the speed of their change can be the wrong direction and the wrong speed for you. There is no guarantee that another person's growth aligns with what you want; sometimes you just grow apart."
  • The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think (Derek Thompson): Excellent little overview of demography with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde.
• 5/25/2026
  • The dumb policy making groceries more expensive (Matt Yglesias): Matt Yglesias argues against the requirement that gasoline be blended with ethanol. The fact that refiners buy their way out of blending is evidence that the policy doesn't make financial; even the supposed environmental benefits of ethanol are unclear.
• 5/26/2026
  • The Case for Mickey-Mouse Doses (Desmolysium): On the benefits of micro dosing certain prescription drugs (reduced side effects, small nudges). Most doctors as "cooks and not chefs" who wouldn't think to prescribe lower than the smallest available dose.
• 5/27/2026
  • Money Stuff: Index Funds Can't Say No to SpaceX (Matt Levine): On what index funds can and can't exclude (basically, they usually have to follow the market, even if it seems dumb).
• 5/28/2026
  • Money Stuff: Robinhood Adds Some Agents (Matt Levine): ETFs may decline once AI agents become capable enough to automatically invest based on a personal thesis.
• 5/29/2026
  • Brendan Greeley on the Real 500-Year History of the Dollar (Odd Lots podcast): On the history and value of the dollar.